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Prospective Memory Is a Key Predictor of Functional Independence in Older Adults
- Alexandra Hering, Matthias Kliegel, Peter G. Rendell, Fergus I.M. Craik, Nathan S. Rose
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- Journal:
- Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 24 / Issue 6 / July 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 April 2018, pp. 640-645
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Objectives: Prospective memory (PM), the ability to execute delayed intentions, has received increasing attention in neuropsychology and gerontology. Most of this research is motivated by the claim that PM is critical for maintaining functional independence; yet, there is a dearth of empirical evidence to back up the claims. Thus, the present study tested whether PM predicts functional independence in older adults using validated behavioral performance measures for both PM and functional independence. Methods: Fifty-eight healthy older adults performed a computerized PM paradigm, the Virtual Week task, as well as a timed version of an instrumental activities of daily living (TIADL) task. Furthermore, we assessed vocabulary, processing speed, and self-reported prospective remembering. Results: TIADL scores correlated significantly with performance in the Virtual Week task, vocabulary, and processing speed. Hierarchical linear regressions revealed that vocabulary and Virtual Week performance were significant predictors for TIADL. However, self-reported PM scores did not predict everyday functioning. Conclusions: The findings indicate that PM is an important cognitive ability for successful and independent everyday life beyond vocabulary. Moreover, the results show a substantial incremental contribution of intact PM performance for the prediction of everyday functioning by using objective PM measures. (JINS, 2018, 24, 640–645)
The Last Interglacial Ocean
- Rose Marie L. Cline, James D. Hays, Warren L. Prell, William F. Ruddiman, Ted C. Moore, Nilva G. Kipp, Barbara E. Molfino, George H. Denton, Terence J. Hughes, William L. Balsam, Charlotte A. Brunner, Jean-Claude Duplessy, Ann G. Esmay, James L. Fastook, John Imbrie, Lloyd D. Keigwin, Thomas B. Kellogg, Andrew McIntyre, Robley K. Matthews, Alan C. Mix, Joseph J. Morley, Nicholas J. Shackleton, S. Stephen Streeter, Peter R. Thompson
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- Journal:
- Quaternary Research / Volume 21 / Issue 2 / February 1984
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 20 January 2017, pp. 123-224
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The final effort of the CLIMAP project was a study of the last interglaciation, a time of minimum ice volume some 122,000 yr ago coincident with the Substage 5e oxygen isotopic minimum. Based on detailed oxygen isotope analyses and biotic census counts in 52 cores across the world ocean, last interglacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) were compared with those today. There are small SST departures in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (warmer) and the Gulf of Mexico (cooler). The eastern boundary currents of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans are marked by large SST anomalies in individual cores, but their interpretations are precluded by no-analog problems and by discordancies among estimates from different biotic groups. In general, the last interglacial ocean was not significantly different from the modern ocean. The relative sequencing of ice decay versus oceanic warming on the Stage 6/5 oxygen isotopic transition and of ice growth versus oceanic cooling on the Stage 5e/5d transition was also studied. In most of the Southern Hemisphere, the oceanic response marked by the biotic census counts preceded (led) the global ice-volume response marked by the oxygen-isotope signal by several thousand years. The reverse pattern is evident in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where the oceanic response lagged that of global ice volume by several thousand years. As a result, the very warm temperatures associated with the last interglaciation were regionally diachronous by several thousand years. These regional lead-lag relationships agree with those observed on other transitions and in long-term phase relationships; they cannot be explained simply as artifacts of bioturbational translations of the original signals.
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- By Rony A. Adam, Gloria Bachmann, Nichole M. Barker, Randall B. Barnes, John Bennett, Inbar Ben-Shachar, Jonathan S. Berek, Sarah L. Berga, Monica W. Best, Eric J. Bieber, Frank M. Biro, Shan Biscette, Anita K. Blanchard, Candace Brown, Ronald T. Burkman, Joseph Buscema, John E. Buster, Michael Byas-Smith, Sandra Ann Carson, Judy C. Chang, Annie N. Y. Cheung, Mindy S. Christianson, Karishma Circelli, Daniel L. Clarke-Pearson, Larry J. Copeland, Bryan D. Cowan, Navneet Dhillon, Michael P. Diamond, Conception Diaz-Arrastia, Nicole M. Donnellan, Michael L. Eisenberg, Eric Eisenhauer, Sebastian Faro, J. Stuart Ferriss, Lisa C. Flowers, Susan J. Freeman, Leda Gattoc, Claudine Marie Gayle, Timothy M. Geiger, Jennifer S. Gell, Alan N. Gordon, Victoria L. Green, Jon K. Hathaway, Enrique Hernandez, S. Paige Hertweck, Randall S. Hines, Ira R. Horowitz, Fred M. Howard, William W. Hurd, Fidan Israfilbayli, Denise J. Jamieson, Carolyn R. Jaslow, Erika B. Johnston-MacAnanny, Rohna M. Kearney, Namita Khanna, Caroline C. King, Jeremy A. King, Ira J. Kodner, Tamara Kolev, Athena P. Kourtis, S. Robert Kovac, Ertug Kovanci, William H. Kutteh, Eduardo Lara-Torre, Pallavi Latthe, Herschel W. Lawson, Ronald L. Levine, Frank W. Ling, Larry I. Lipshultz, Steven D. McCarus, Robert McLellan, Shruti Malik, Suketu M. Mansuria, Mohamed K. Mehasseb, Pamela J. Murray, Saloney Nazeer, Farr R. Nezhat, Hextan Y. S. Ngan, Gina M. Northington, Peggy A. Norton, Ruth M. O'Regan, Kristiina Parviainen, Resad P. Pasic, Tanja Pejovic, K. Ulrich Petry, Nancy A. Phillips, Ashish Pradhan, Elizabeth E. Puscheck, Suneetha Rachaneni, Devon M. Ramaeker, David B. Redwine, Robert L. Reid, Carla P. Roberts, Walter Romano, Peter G. Rose, Robert L. Rosenfield, Shon P. Rowan, Mack T. Ruffin, Janice M. Rymer, Evis Sala, Ritu Salani, Joseph S. Sanfilippo, Mahmood I. Shafi, Roger P. Smith, Meredith L. Snook, Thomas E. Snyder, Mary D. Stephenson, Thomas G. Stovall, Richard L. Sweet, Philip M. Toozs-Hobson, Togas Tulandi, Elizabeth R. Unger, Denise S. Uyar, Marion S. Verp, Rahi Victory, Tamara J. Vokes, Michelle J. Washington, Katharine O'Connell White, Paul E. Wise, Frank M. Wittmaack, Miya P. Yamamoto, Christine Yu, Howard A. Zacur
- Edited by Eric J. Bieber, Joseph S. Sanfilippo, University of Pittsburgh, Ira R. Horowitz, Emory University, Atlanta, Mahmood I. Shafi
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- Book:
- Clinical Gynecology
- Published online:
- 05 April 2015
- Print publication:
- 23 April 2015, pp viii-xiv
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Chapter 51 - Ovarian cancer
- from Section 7 - Gynecological oncology
- Edited by Eric J. Bieber, Joseph S. Sanfilippo, University of Pittsburgh, Ira R. Horowitz, Emory University, Atlanta, Mahmood I. Shafi
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- Clinical Gynecology
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- 05 April 2015
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- 23 April 2015, pp 790-812
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- By Julie M. Allen, Marina S. Ascunce, Ahidjo Ayouba, David Bass, Frida Ben-Ami, Frédéric Bordes, Bret M. Boyd, Rodney A. Bray, Aurélie Chambouvet, Philippe Christe, Julien Claude, Yves Desdevises, Carl W. Dick, Katharina Dittmar, Ashley Dowling, Bryan G. Falk, Martín García-Varela, Rebecca Rose Gray, Michael W. Hastriter, Hadas Hawlena, Tine Huyse, James C. Iles, Tania Jenkins, Boris R. Krasnov, Armand M. Kuris, Tommy L. F. Leung, D. Timothy J. Littlewood, Peter V. Markov, Camilo Mora, Serge Morand, Solon F. Morse, Steve Nadler, Sigrid Neuhauser, Roderic Page, Bruce D. Patterson, Martine Peeters, Gerardo Pérez-Ponce de León, Susan L. Perkins, Timothée Poisot, Robert Poulin, Oliver G. Pybus, David L. Reed, Thomas A. Richards, Klaus Rohde, Lajos Rózsa, Andrea Šimková, Arne Skorping, Melissa A. Toups, Piotr Tryjanowski, Maarten P. M. Vanhove, Zoltán Vas, Andrea Waeschenbach, Lucy A. Weinert, Michael F. Whiting, Quin Zhu
- Edited by Serge Morand, Université de Montpellier II, Boris R. Krasnov, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel, D. Timothy J. Littlewood, Natural History Museum, London
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- Book:
- Parasite Diversity and Diversification
- Published online:
- 05 March 2015
- Print publication:
- 26 February 2015, pp viii-xii
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- By Brittany L. Anderson-Montoya, Heather R. Bailey, Carryl L. Baldwin, Daphne Bavelier, Jameson D. Beach, Jeffrey S. Bedwell, Kevin B. Bennett, Richard A. Block, Deborah A. Boehm-Davis, Corey J. Bohil, David B. Boles, Avinoam Borowsky, Jessica Bramlett, Allison A. Brennan, J. Christopher Brill, Matthew S. Cain, Meredith Carroll, Roberto Champney, Kait Clark, Nancy J. Cooke, Lori M. Curtindale, Clare Davies, Patricia R. DeLucia, Andrew E. Deptula, Michael B. Dillard, Colin D. Drury, Christopher Edman, James T. Enns, Sara Irina Fabrikant, Victor S. Finomore, Arthur D. Fisk, John M. Flach, Matthew E. Funke, Andre Garcia, Adam Gazzaley, Douglas J. Gillan, Rebecca A. Grier, Simen Hagen, Kelly Hale, Diane F. Halpern, Peter A. Hancock, Deborah L. Harm, Mary Hegarty, Laurie M. Heller, Nicole D. Helton, William S. Helton, Robert R. Hoffman, Jerred Holt, Xiaogang Hu, Richard J. Jagacinski, Keith S. Jones, Astrid M. L. Kappers, Simon Kemp, Robert C. Kennedy, Robert S. Kennedy, Alan Kingstone, Ioana Koglbauer, Norman E. Lane, Robert D. Latzman, Cynthia Laurie-Rose, Patricia Lee, Richard Lowe, Valerie Lugo, Poornima Madhavan, Leonard S. Mark, Gerald Matthews, Jyoti Mishra, Stephen R. Mitroff, Tracy L. Mitzner, Alexander M. Morison, Taylor Murphy, Takamichi Nakamoto, John G. Neuhoff, Karl M. Newell, Tal Oron-Gilad, Raja Parasuraman, Tiffany A. Pempek, Robert W. Proctor, Katie A. Ragsdale, Anil K. Raj, Millard F. Reschke, Evan F. Risko, Matthew Rizzo, Wendy A. Rogers, Jesse Q. Sargent, Mark W. Scerbo, Natasha B. Schwartz, F. Jacob Seagull, Cory-Ann Smarr, L. James Smart, Kay Stanney, James Staszewski, Clayton L. Stephenson, Mary E. Stuart, Breanna E. Studenka, Joel Suss, Leedjia Svec, James L. Szalma, James Tanaka, James Thompson, Wouter M. Bergmann Tiest, Lauren A. Vassiliades, Michael A. Vidulich, Paul Ward, Joel S. Warm, David A. Washburn, Christopher D. Wickens, Scott J. Wood, David D. Woods, Motonori Yamaguchi, Lin Ye, Jeffrey M. Zacks
- Edited by Robert R. Hoffman, Peter A. Hancock, University of Central Florida, Mark W. Scerbo, Old Dominion University, Virginia, Raja Parasuraman, George Mason University, Virginia, James L. Szalma, University of Central Florida
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Handbook of Applied Perception Research
- Published online:
- 05 July 2015
- Print publication:
- 26 January 2015, pp xi-xiv
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- By Francesco Acerbi, Ayca Akgoz, Matthew R. Amans, Ramsey Ashour, Mohammed Ali Aziz-Sultan, H. Hunt Batjer, Donnie Bell, Bernard R. Bendok, Giovanni Broggi, Morgan Broggi, Charles A. Bruno, Steven D. Chang, In Sup Choi, Omar Choudhri, Douglas J. Cook, William P. Dillon, Peter Dirks, Rose Du, Travis M. Dumont, Tarek Y. El Ahmadieh, Najib E. El Tecle, Mohamed Samy Elhammady, Paolo Ferroli, Alana M. Flexman, John C. Flickinger, Kai U. Frerichs, Sasikhan Geibprasert, Adrian W. Gelb, Y. Pierre Gobin, Bradley A. Gross, Seunggu J. Han, Tomoki Hashimoto, Juha Hernesniemi, Roberto C. Heros, Steven W. Hetts, Randall T. Higashida, Joshua A. Hirsch, Nikolai J. Hopf, L. Nelson Hopkins, Maziyar A. Kalani, M. Yashar S. Kalani, Hideyuki Kano, Syed Aftab Karim, Robert M. Koffie, Douglas S. Kondziolka, Timo Krings, Aki Laakso, Giuseppe Lanzino, Michael T. Lawton, Elad I. Levy, L. Dade Lunsford, Adel M. Malek, Michael P. Marks, George A. C. Mendes, Philip M. Meyers, Jacques Morcos, Nitin Mukerji, Christian Musahl, Ludmila Pawlikowska, Matthew B. Potts, Ross Puffer, James D. Rabinov, Jonathan J. Russin, Mina G. Safain, Duke Samson, Marco Schiariti, R. Michael Scott, Jason P. Sheehan, Paul Singh, Edward R. Smith, Scott G. Soltys, Robert F. Spetzler, Gary K. Steinberg, Philip E. Stieg, Hua Su, Karel terBrugge, Kiron Thomas, Tarik Tihan, Babu Welch, Jonathan White, H. Richard Winn, Chun-Po Yen, Jacky T. Yeung, Byron Yip, Samer G. Zammar
- Edited by Robert F. Spetzler, Douglas S. Kondziolka, Randall T. Higashida, University of California, San Francisco, M. Yashar S. Kalani
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- Book:
- Comprehensive Management of Arteriovenous Malformations of the Brain and Spine
- Published online:
- 05 January 2015
- Print publication:
- 08 January 2015, pp x-xiv
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- By Kumar Alagappan, Janet G. Alteveer, Kim Askew, Paul S. Auerbach, Katherine Bakes, Kip Benko, Paul D. Biddinger, Victoria Brazil, Anthony FT Brown, Andrew K. Chang, Alice Chiao, Wendy C. Coates, Jamie Collings, Gilbert Abou Dagher, Jonathan E. Davis, Peter DeBlieux, Alessandro Dellai, Emily Doelger, Pamela L. Dyne, Gino Farina, Robert Galli, Gus M. Garmel, Daniel Garza, Laleh Gharahbaghian, Gregory H. Gilbert, Michael A. Gisondi, Steven Go, Jeffrey M. Goodloe, Swaminatha V. Gurudevan, Micelle J. Haydel, Stephen R. Hayden, Corey R. Heitz, Gregory W. Hendey, Mel Herbert, Cherri Hobgood, Michelle Huston, Loretta Jackson-Williams, Anja K. Jaehne, Mary Beth Johnson, H. Brendan Kelleher, Peter G Kumasaka, Melissa J. Lamberson, Mary Lanctot-Herbert, Erik Laurin, Brian Lin, Michelle Lin, Douglas Lowery-North, Sharon E. Mace, S. V. Mahadevan, Thomas M. Mailhot, Diku Mandavia, David E. Manthey, Jorge A. Martinez, Amal Mattu, Lynne McCullough, Steve McLaughlin, Timothy Meyers, Gregory J. Moran, Randall T. Myers, Christopher R.H. Newton, Flavia Nobay, Robert L. Norris, Catherine Oliver, Jennifer A. Oman, Rita Oregon, Phillips Perera, Susan B. Promes, Emanuel P. Rivers, John S. Rose, Carolyn J. Sachs, Jairo I. Santanilla, Rawle A. Seupaul, Fred A. Severyn, Ghazala Q. Sharieff, Lee W. Shockley, Stefanie Simmons, Barry C. Simon, Shannon Sovndal, George Sternbach, Matthew Strehlow, Eustacia (Jo) Su, Stuart P. Swadron, Jeffrey A. Tabas, Sophie Terp, R. Jason Thurman, David A. Wald, Sarah R. Williams, Teresa S. Wu, Ken Zafren
- Edited by S. V. Mahadevan, Stanford University School of Medicine, California, Gus M. Garmel
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- Book:
- An Introduction to Clinical Emergency Medicine
- Published online:
- 05 May 2012
- Print publication:
- 10 April 2012, pp xi-xvi
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- By Lee R. Berger, Fred L. Bookstein, Günter Bräuer, Michel Brunet, Steven E. Churchill, Ronald J. Clarke, M. Christopher Dean, Michelle S. M. Drapeau, Sarah Elton, Dean Falk, Andrew Gallagher, John A. J. Gowlett, Colin Groves, Philipp Gunz, Adam Hartstone-Rose, Jason Hemingway, Ralph L. Holloway, Vance T. Hutchinson, William L. Jungers, Ivor Janković, Kevin L. Kuykendall, Sang-Hee Lee, Julia Lee-Thorp, Paul R. Manger, Emma Mbua, Henry M. McHenry, Philipp Mitteroecker, Simon Neubauer, Osbjorn M. Pearson, Travis R. Pickering, Martin Pickford, Sally C. Reynolds, Brian G. Richmond, Avraham Ronen, Darryl J. de Ruiter, Brigitte Senut, Fred H. Smith, Muhammad A. Spocter, Matt Sponheimer, J. Francis Thackeray, Phillip V. Tobias, Peter S. Ungar, Lyn Wadley, Gerhard W. Weber, Milford H. Wolpoff, B. Headman Zondo
- Edited by Sally C. Reynolds, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Andrew Gallagher, University of Johannesburg
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- Book:
- African Genesis
- Published online:
- 05 April 2012
- Print publication:
- 29 March 2012, pp viii-xii
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- By Phillip L. Ackerman, Soon Ang, Susan M. Barnett, G. David Batty, Anna S. Beninger, Jillian Brass, Meghan M. Burke, Nancy Cantor, Priyanka B. Carr, David R. Caruso, Stephen J. Ceci, Lillia Cherkasskiy, Joanna Christodoulou, Andrew R. A. Conway, Christine E. Daley, Janet E. Davidson, Jim Davies, Katie Davis, Ian J. Deary, Colin G. DeYoung, Ron Dumont, Carol S. Dweck, Linn Van Dyne, Pascale M. J. Engel de Abreu, Joseph F. Fagan, David Henry Feldman, Kurt W. Fischer, Marisa H. Fisher, James R. Flynn, Liane Gabora, Howard Gardner, Glenn Geher, Sarah J. Getz, Judith Glück, Ashok K. Goel, Megan M. Griffin, Elena L. Grigorenko, Richard J. Haier, Diane F. Halpern, Christopher Hertzog, Robert M. Hodapp, Earl Hunt, Alan S. Kaufman, James C. Kaufman, Scott Barry Kaufman, Iris A. Kemp, John F. Kihlstrom, Joni M. Lakin, Christina S. Lee, David F. Lohman, N. J. Mackintosh, Brooke Macnamara, Samuel D. Mandelman, John D. Mayer, Richard E. Mayer, Martha J. Morelock, Ted Nettelbeck, Raymond S. Nickerson, Weihua Niu, Anthony J. Onwuegbuzie, Jonathan A. Plucker, Sally M. Reis, Joseph S. Renzulli, Heiner Rindermann, L. Todd Rose, Anne Russon, Peter Salovey, Scott Seider, Ellen L. Short, Keith E. Stanovich, Ursula M. Staudinger, Robert J. Sternberg, Carli A. Straight, Lisa A. Suzuki, Mei Ling Tan, Maggie E. Toplak, Susana Urbina, Richard K. Wagner, Richard F. West, Wendy M. Williams, John O. Willis, Thomas R. Zentall
- Edited by Robert J. Sternberg, Oklahoma State University, Scott Barry Kaufman, New York University
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Handbook of Intelligence
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 30 May 2011, pp xi-xiv
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- By Rose Teteki Abbey, K. C. Abraham, David Tuesday Adamo, LeRoy H. Aden, Efrain Agosto, Victor Aguilan, Gillian T. W. Ahlgren, Charanjit Kaur AjitSingh, Dorothy B E A Akoto, Giuseppe Alberigo, Daniel E. Albrecht, Ruth Albrecht, Daniel O. Aleshire, Urs Altermatt, Anand Amaladass, Michael Amaladoss, James N. Amanze, Lesley G. Anderson, Thomas C. Anderson, Victor Anderson, Hope S. Antone, María Pilar Aquino, Paula Arai, Victorio Araya Guillén, S. Wesley Ariarajah, Ellen T. Armour, Brett Gregory Armstrong, Atsuhiro Asano, Naim Stifan Ateek, Mahmoud Ayoub, John Alembillah Azumah, Mercedes L. García Bachmann, Irena Backus, J. Wayne Baker, Mieke Bal, Lewis V. Baldwin, William Barbieri, António Barbosa da Silva, David Basinger, Bolaji Olukemi Bateye, Oswald Bayer, Daniel H. Bays, Rosalie Beck, Nancy Elizabeth Bedford, Guy-Thomas Bedouelle, Chorbishop Seely Beggiani, Wolfgang Behringer, Christopher M. Bellitto, Byard Bennett, Harold V. Bennett, Teresa Berger, Miguel A. Bernad, Henley Bernard, Alan E. Bernstein, Jon L. Berquist, Johannes Beutler, Ana María Bidegain, Matthew P. Binkewicz, Jennifer Bird, Joseph Blenkinsopp, Dmytro Bondarenko, Paulo Bonfatti, Riet en Pim Bons-Storm, Jessica A. Boon, Marcus J. Borg, Mark Bosco, Peter C. Bouteneff, François Bovon, William D. Bowman, Paul S. Boyer, David Brakke, Richard E. Brantley, Marcus Braybrooke, Ian Breward, Ênio José da Costa Brito, Jewel Spears Brooker, Johannes Brosseder, Nicholas Canfield Read Brown, Robert F. Brown, Pamela K. Brubaker, Walter Brueggemann, Bishop Colin O. Buchanan, Stanley M. Burgess, Amy Nelson Burnett, J. Patout Burns, David B. Burrell, David Buttrick, James P. Byrd, Lavinia Byrne, Gerado Caetano, Marcos Caldas, Alkiviadis Calivas, William J. Callahan, Salvatore Calomino, Euan K. Cameron, William S. Campbell, Marcelo Ayres Camurça, Daniel F. Caner, Paul E. Capetz, Carlos F. Cardoza-Orlandi, Patrick W. Carey, Barbara Carvill, Hal Cauthron, Subhadra Mitra Channa, Mark D. Chapman, James H. Charlesworth, Kenneth R. Chase, Chen Zemin, Luciano Chianeque, Philip Chia Phin Yin, Francisca H. Chimhanda, Daniel Chiquete, John T. Chirban, Soobin Choi, Robert Choquette, Mita Choudhury, Gerald Christianson, John Chryssavgis, Sejong Chun, Esther Chung-Kim, Charles M. A. Clark, Elizabeth A. Clark, Sathianathan Clarke, Fred Cloud, John B. Cobb, W. Owen Cole, John A Coleman, John J. Collins, Sylvia Collins-Mayo, Paul K. Conkin, Beth A. Conklin, Sean Connolly, Demetrios J. Constantelos, Michael A. Conway, Paula M. Cooey, Austin Cooper, Michael L. Cooper-White, Pamela Cooper-White, L. William Countryman, Sérgio Coutinho, Pamela Couture, Shannon Craigo-Snell, James L. Crenshaw, David Crowner, Humberto Horacio Cucchetti, Lawrence S. Cunningham, Elizabeth Mason Currier, Emmanuel Cutrone, Mary L. Daniel, David D. Daniels, Robert Darden, Rolf Darge, Isaiah Dau, Jeffry C. Davis, Jane Dawson, Valentin Dedji, John W. de Gruchy, Paul DeHart, Wendy J. Deichmann Edwards, Miguel A. De La Torre, George E. Demacopoulos, Thomas de Mayo, Leah DeVun, Beatriz de Vasconcellos Dias, Dennis C. Dickerson, John M. Dillon, Luis Miguel Donatello, Igor Dorfmann-Lazarev, Susanna Drake, Jonathan A. Draper, N. Dreher Martin, Otto Dreydoppel, Angelyn Dries, A. J. Droge, Francis X. D'Sa, Marilyn Dunn, Nicole Wilkinson Duran, Rifaat Ebied, Mark J. Edwards, William H. Edwards, Leonard H. Ehrlich, Nancy L. Eiesland, Martin Elbel, J. Harold Ellens, Stephen Ellingson, Marvin M. Ellison, Robert Ellsberg, Jean Bethke Elshtain, Eldon Jay Epp, Peter C. Erb, Tassilo Erhardt, Maria Erling, Noel Leo Erskine, Gillian R. Evans, Virginia Fabella, Michael A. Fahey, Edward Farley, Margaret A. Farley, Wendy Farley, Robert Fastiggi, Seena Fazel, Duncan S. Ferguson, Helwar Figueroa, Paul Corby Finney, Kyriaki Karidoyanes FitzGerald, Thomas E. FitzGerald, John R. Fitzmier, Marie Therese Flanagan, Sabina Flanagan, Claude Flipo, Ronald B. Flowers, Carole Fontaine, David Ford, Mary Ford, Stephanie A. Ford, Jim Forest, William Franke, Robert M. Franklin, Ruth Franzén, Edward H. Friedman, Samuel Frouisou, Lorelei F. Fuchs, Jojo M. Fung, Inger Furseth, Richard R. Gaillardetz, Brandon Gallaher, China Galland, Mark Galli, Ismael García, Tharscisse Gatwa, Jean-Marie Gaudeul, Luis María Gavilanes del Castillo, Pavel L. Gavrilyuk, Volney P. Gay, Metropolitan Athanasios Geevargis, Kondothra M. George, Mary Gerhart, Simon Gikandi, Maurice Gilbert, Michael J. Gillgannon, Verónica Giménez Beliveau, Terryl Givens, Beth Glazier-McDonald, Philip Gleason, Menghun Goh, Brian Golding, Bishop Hilario M. Gomez, Michelle A. Gonzalez, Donald K. Gorrell, Roy Gottfried, Tamara Grdzelidze, Joel B. Green, Niels Henrik Gregersen, Cristina Grenholm, Herbert Griffiths, Eric W. Gritsch, Erich S. Gruen, Christoffer H. Grundmann, Paul H. Gundani, Jon P. Gunnemann, Petre Guran, Vidar L. Haanes, Jeremiah M. Hackett, Getatchew Haile, Douglas John Hall, Nicholas Hammond, Daphne Hampson, Jehu J. Hanciles, Barry Hankins, Jennifer Haraguchi, Stanley S. Harakas, Anthony John Harding, Conrad L. Harkins, J. William Harmless, Marjory Harper, Amir Harrak, Joel F. Harrington, Mark W. Harris, Susan Ashbrook Harvey, Van A. Harvey, R. Chris Hassel, Jione Havea, Daniel Hawk, Diana L. Hayes, Leslie Hayes, Priscilla Hayner, S. Mark Heim, Simo Heininen, Richard P. Heitzenrater, Eila Helander, David Hempton, Scott H. Hendrix, Jan-Olav Henriksen, Gina Hens-Piazza, Carter Heyward, Nicholas J. Higham, David Hilliard, Norman A. Hjelm, Peter C. Hodgson, Arthur Holder, M. Jan Holton, Dwight N. Hopkins, Ronnie Po-chia Hsia, Po-Ho Huang, James Hudnut-Beumler, Jennifer S. Hughes, Leonard M. Hummel, Mary E. Hunt, Laennec Hurbon, Mark Hutchinson, Susan E. Hylen, Mary Beth Ingham, H. Larry Ingle, Dale T. Irvin, Jon Isaak, Paul John Isaak, Ada María Isasi-Díaz, Hans Raun Iversen, Margaret C. Jacob, Arthur James, Maria Jansdotter-Samuelsson, David Jasper, Werner G. Jeanrond, Renée Jeffery, David Lyle Jeffrey, Theodore W. Jennings, David H. Jensen, Robin Margaret Jensen, David Jobling, Dale A. Johnson, Elizabeth A. Johnson, Maxwell E. Johnson, Sarah Johnson, Mark D. Johnston, F. Stanley Jones, James William Jones, John R. Jones, Alissa Jones Nelson, Inge Jonsson, Jan Joosten, Elizabeth Judd, Mulambya Peggy Kabonde, Robert Kaggwa, Sylvester Kahakwa, Isaac Kalimi, Ogbu U. Kalu, Eunice Kamaara, Wayne C. Kannaday, Musimbi Kanyoro, Veli-Matti Kärkkäinen, Frank Kaufmann, Léon Nguapitshi Kayongo, Richard Kearney, Alice A. Keefe, Ralph Keen, Catherine Keller, Anthony J. Kelly, Karen Kennelly, Kathi Lynn Kern, Fergus Kerr, Edward Kessler, George Kilcourse, Heup Young Kim, Kim Sung-Hae, Kim Yong-Bock, Kim Yung Suk, Richard King, Thomas M. King, Robert M. Kingdon, Ross Kinsler, Hans G. Kippenberg, Cheryl A. Kirk-Duggan, Clifton Kirkpatrick, Leonid Kishkovsky, Nadieszda Kizenko, Jeffrey Klaiber, Hans-Josef Klauck, Sidney Knight, Samuel Kobia, Robert Kolb, Karla Ann Koll, Heikki Kotila, Donald Kraybill, Philip D. W. Krey, Yves Krumenacker, Jeffrey Kah-Jin Kuan, Simanga R. Kumalo, Peter Kuzmic, Simon Shui-Man Kwan, Kwok Pui-lan, André LaCocque, Stephen E. Lahey, John Tsz Pang Lai, Emiel Lamberts, Armando Lampe, Craig Lampe, Beverly J. Lanzetta, Eve LaPlante, Lizette Larson-Miller, Ariel Bybee Laughton, Leonard Lawlor, Bentley Layton, Robin A. Leaver, Karen Lebacqz, Archie Chi Chung Lee, Marilyn J. Legge, Hervé LeGrand, D. L. LeMahieu, Raymond Lemieux, Bill J. Leonard, Ellen M. Leonard, Outi Leppä, Jean Lesaulnier, Nantawan Boonprasat Lewis, Henrietta Leyser, Alexei Lidov, Bernard Lightman, Paul Chang-Ha Lim, Carter Lindberg, Mark R. Lindsay, James R. Linville, James C. Livingston, Ann Loades, David Loades, Jean-Claude Loba-Mkole, Lo Lung Kwong, Wati Longchar, Eleazar López, David W. 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Contributors
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- By Isabella Aboderin, W. Andrew Achenbaum, Katherine R. Allen, Toni C. Antonucci, Sara Arber, Claudine Attias‐Donfut, Paul B. Baltes, Sandhi Maria Barreto, Vern L. Bengtson, Simon Biggs, Joanna Bornat, Julie B. Boron, Mike Boulton, Clive E. Bowman, Marjolein Broese van Groenou, Edna Brown, Robert N. Butler, Bill Bytheway, Neena L. Chappell, Neil Charness, Kaare Christensen, Peter G. Coleman, Ingrid Arnet Connidis, Neal E. Cutler, Sara J. Czaja, Svein Olav Daatland, Lia Susana Daichman, Adam Davey, Bleddyn Davies, Freya Dittmann‐Kohli, Glen H. Elder, Carroll L. Estes, Mike Featherstone, Amy Fiske, Alexandra Freund, Daphna Gans, Linda K. George, Roseann Giarrusso, Chris Gilleard, Jay Ginn, Edlira Gjonça, Elena L. Grigorenko, Jaber F. Gubrium, Sarah Harper, Jutta Heckhausen, Akiko Hashimoto, Jon Hendricks, Mike Hepworth, Charlotte Ikels, James S. Jackson, Yuri Jang, Bernard Jeune, Malcolm L. Johnson, Randi S. Jones, Alexandre Kalache, Robert L. Kane, Rosalie A. Kane, Ingrid Keller, Rose Anne Kenny, Thomas B. L. Kirkwood, Kees Knipscheer, Martin Kohli, Gisela Labouvie‐Vief, Kristina Larsson, Shu‐Chen Li, Charles F. Longino, Ariela Lowenstein, Erick McCarthy, Gerald E. McClearn, Brendan McCormack, Elizabeth MacKinlay, Alfons Marcoen, Michael Marmot, Tom Margrain, Victor W. Marshall, Elizabeth A. Maylor, Ruud ter Meulen, Harry R. Moody, Robert A. Neimeyer, Demi Patsios, Margaret J. Penning, Stephen A. Petrill, Chris Phillipson, Leonard W. Poon, Norella M. Putney, Jill Quadagno, Pat Rabbitt, Jennifer Reid Keene, Sandra G. Reynolds, Steven R. Sabat, Clive Seale, Merril Silverstein, Hannes B. Staehelin, Ursula M. Staudinger, Robert J. Sternberg, Debra Street, Philip Taylor, Fleur Thomése, Mats Thorslund, Jinzhou Tian, Theo van Tilburg, Fernando M. Torres‐Gil, Josy Ubachs‐Moust, Christina Victor, K. Warner Shaie, Anthony M. Warnes, James L. Werth, Sherry L. Willis, François‐Charles Wolff, Bob Woods
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1 - Introduction
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
Among the depressing features of international political studies is the small gain in explanatory power that has come from the large amount of work done in recent decades. Nothing seems to accumulate, not even criticism. Instead, the same sorts of summary and superficial criticisms are made over and over again, and the same sorts of errors are repeated.
Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (1979, p. 18)Despite the attention of such intellectual giants as Spinoza, Rousseau, Kant, and Clausewitz, we know little more about international conflict today than was known to Thucydides four hundred years before Christ.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (1981, p. 2)Perspectives
Although the causes of international instability and conflict have been the object of intense scholarly concern, the events of our century are not inconsistent with the supposition that we have made little progress in identifying those causes, that, once identified, we have not adequately applied our research to the discovery of correctives, or that those causes have multiplied at a pace that exceeds our abilities of assimilation and analysis. Some scholars amass and analyze vast arrays of data on diplomatic exchanges, military expenditures, economic indicators, the formation of alliances, and the frequency and severity of wars; others apply the mathematics of decision and game theory with varying degrees of sophistication to the description of international relations processes; and still others reason through the meaning and application of concepts and words such as polarity, power, regime, deterrence, neocolonialism, and the balance of power. If this research has uncovered causes and correctives then, for one reason or another, the corresponding scholarly utterances have been less than compelling.
References and selected bibliography on European great-power relations, 1871–1914
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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8 - European conflict resolution, 1875–1914
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
Should equilibrium be attained at one point, it would immediately be wiped out by the search for slight superiority.
Ernest B. Haas, “The Balance of Power: Prescription, Concept or Propaganda?“ (1953, p. 450)[A] system of flexible alliance arrangements can only maintain stability if the core powers can jointly increase their capabilities at the expense of peripheral actors.
Partha Chatterjee, Arms, Alliances, and Stability (1975, p. 126)In Chapter 7, we examined the general applicability of our model to alliance formation, concluding that European alliances between 1871 and 1914 are consistent with a calculation of coalitional value derived from the concept of system stability, and consistent as well with the respective roles of Germany and Britain as central power and balancer. However, system stability does not imply resource stability, which leaves room at a more microlevel for threats and counterthreats to be directed at achieving, if not the “slight superiority” to which Haas refers, at least some advantage. This view of instability within stability leads us to different predictions about conflict resolution than others offer. Translating his assertion into our terms, Chatterjee sees resource instability yielding system stability only if the game is not constant-sum - if members of the system can expropriate from external entities. We argue, though, that alliance flexibility allows wholly endogenous adjustments, but only if those adjustments are consistent with the requirements of such stability. We must check, then, whether we can interpret actual resource adjustments as being constrained if not dictated by system stability, and subsidiarily to see what insights we can gain about alliance formation and maintenance.
7 - Great-power alliance formation, 1871–1914
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
The Balance of Power worked with calculation almost as pure as in the days before the French Revolution. It seemed to be the political equivalent of the laws of economics, both self-operating. If every man followed his own interest, all would be prosperous; and if every state followed its own interest, all would be peaceful and secure.
A. J. P. Taylor, The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918 (1954, p. xx)To give meaning to the factual raw material of foreign policy… we put ourselves in the position of a statesman who must meet a certain problem of foreign policy… and we ask ourselves what the rational alternatives are from which a statesman may choose… and which of these rational alternatives this particular statesman, acting under these circumstances, is likely to choose. It is the testing of this rational hypothesis against the actual facts and their consequences that gives meaning to the facts of international politics and makes a theory of politics possible.
Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations (1959, p. 5)It is one thing to formulate a set of assumptions and to deduce consequences; it is another thing to relate those assumptions and deductions to reality in such a way that they facilitate our understanding of events. This is an especially important consideration in the present context since any set of abstract assumptions used to model complex macropolitical processes must be at odds to some extent with what we believe to be true about reality.
9 - Summary and conclusions
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
Balance of power reconsidered
Much of what we say in this volume agrees with scholarly intuition about international stability, instability, and the nature of the balance of power. In particular, the idea that the pursuit of narrowly defined national interests can occasion a form of stability that ensures national sovereignty in anarchic systems has been shown to possess both theoretical and empirical foundation. These basic correspondences, however, between our analysis and the intuition the literature offers should not be surprising. We have endeavored to match our assumptions as closely as possible to what others before us identify as the building blocks of a theory of anarchic international systems. Indeed, our analysis matches in its most basic assumption what Waltz (1988, p. 616) cites as the critical component of neorealism: “Because power is a possibly useful means, sensible statesmen try to have an appropriate amount of it. In crucial situations, however, the ultimate concern of states is not for power but for security.” To this outline we have added some formalism and game-theoretic reasoning borrowed from the theory of cooperative games, so if we have done our job well then our conclusions should strike a chord of recognition and understanding. Because we have deliberately sought to uncover the circumstances in which stability emerges in anarchic systems populated by states pursuing a singular objective, our analysis stands forthrightly in the realist tradition, and it should be unsurprising that much of what we have done here parallels the thinking of those whose appreciation of world politics was shaped by such scholars as Claude, Morgenthau, and Taylor.
5 - Preventive war
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
What made the [Peloponnesian] war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.
Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War (trans. Warner 1954, p. 49)The great wars of history – we have had a world war about every hundred years for the last four centuries – are the outcome, direct or indirect, of the unequal growth of nations.
Halford J. Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality (1962, pp. 1–2)Whether to invest in additional power resources or to consume some of those that have been accumulated is a perennial issue of foreign policy. Many of the most important choices governments face have to do with the relative weight given to consumption … versus investment, and with devising strategies for action that are both viable in the short run and capable of achieving wealth and power objectives in the long run.
Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony (1984, p. 24)Intuition and a considerable theoretical and empirical literature concur with Thucydides' assertion that the cause of international conflict lies as much with differential growth rates in resources as with the relative power or resources countries enjoy at any specific point in time. Hence, conflicts might not be attributable wholly to some current “imbalance” in military position, but also to the projections of future imbalances and to a corresponding perception by some that only a preventive war can guarantee their security. Indeed, so compelling is the threat of imbalance owing to the growth of some potential adversary, that even domestic constraints on aggressive action and sentiments for peace can be quickly swept aside. As forcefully argued by McNeill (1982, p. 309):
6 - Geography, balancers, and central powers
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
The geographic location of a state in the world is of basic importance in defining its problems of security. It conditions and influences all other factors… [and] regional location defines potential enemies and allies and perhaps even the limits of a state's role as a participant in a system of collective security.
Nicholas J. Spykman, The Geography of the Peace (1944, pp. 22–)If a Soviet strategic planner could be granted one wish, it should be to move his country somewhere else.
Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (1987, p. 277)A fundamental difficulty with formulating a fully comprehensive theory of stability in anarchic international systems lies in conceptualizing a country's resources so that we adequately summarize the strategic imperatives of a decision maker seeking to ensure a country or a regime's sovereignty. In his early work on coalitions, the size principle, and the application of cooperative game theory to a formulation of the concept of balance of power, for example, Riker (1962) assumes that such systems are constant- sum games in which winning coalitions are those that control a majority of resources.
3 - System stability and the balance of power
- Emerson M. S. Niou, Duke University, North Carolina, Peter C. Ordeshook, California Institute of Technology, Gregory F. Rose
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Summary
The balance of power is a system designed to maintain a continuous conviction in every state that if it attempted aggression, it would encounter an invincible combination of the others.
Quincy Wright, A Study of War (1942, p. 254)The aspiration of power on the part of several nations, each trying either to maintain or overthrow the status quo, leads necessarily to a configuration that is called the balance of power and to policies that aim at preserving it The balance of power and policies aimed at its preservation are not only inevitable but are an essential stabilizing factor in a society of sovereign nations.
Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations (1973, p. 161)In this chapter and the next, we analyze the consequences of the assumptions offered in Chapter 2 by ascertaining the conditions under which both system and resource stability prevail in n-country systems. In doing so, we are able to resolve much of the confusion between assumptions and conclusions found in earlier attempts to theorize about balance of power. And although our model differs significantly in form from the verbal models that others before us formulate, our principal conclusion accords with the scholarly intuition underlying balance-of-power theories: stability of both sorts is possible.